BACKTALK FROM THE BOND MARKET
Investors keep looking to the Fed for supposed “forward guidance”. They are looking in the wrong place. Since mid-December, bond prices have declined another 5% and are currently at new 52-week lows. Here is an updated chart of U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)…
The Federal Reserve doesn’t know what to do; but it probably doesn’t make much difference anymore.
A dilemma is “a situation in which a difficult choice has to be made between two or more alternatives, especially equally undesirable ones.” (New Oxford American Dictionary)
We are hooked on low interest rates and the drug of cheap and easy credit. Maintaining low interest rates furthers that dependency and heightens the risk of overdose. The result would be a swift and renewed weakening of the U.S. dollar accompanied by the increasing effects of inflation.
On the other hand, raising interest rates more could trigger another credit implosion which could lead to deflation and a full-scale depression.
Doing nothing is an option. The problem is that the Fed is holding that “ticking time bomb” and doesn’t know how long it will be until its world blows apart.
WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT
Don’t trouble yourself worrying about who the next Fed chair will be. It doesn’t matter. It is too late in the game for a change to have any meaningful impact. This includes speculation that Judy Shelton might get nominated again. Yes, she is an excellent choice; and, for all of the right reasons.
Unfortunately, that would expose the game of chess being played by the Federal Reserve and its owners. (see Federal Reserve – Conspiracy Or Not? and Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton)
The worst possibilities come after something big happens. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will work together to stave off any possibility of loss of control. That means that everyone – investors, traders, citizens, communities – will be subject to a host of new economic and monetary regulations, restrictions, executive orders, etc.
It will be like nothing we have seen in the past and beyond anything we can currently comprehend. (also see Bond Investors To The Fed – “Not This Time”)
Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED