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RE: FED POLICY…
“I think instinctively – I can’t prove this, we’re going to learn about this empirically – but it seems to me that the neutral rate is probably higher than it was during the intra-crisis period. And so, rates will be higher.” (Jerome Powell, July 2024)
Powell’s comments were from an interview conducted two months prior to the announcement that the Fed Funds target rate was lowered after more than two years of higher interest rates.
FED BALANCE SHEET
Below is a chart posted and updated regularly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis…
As can be seen in the above chart, total assets of the Federal Reserve Bank have declined by 22 percent since peaking in March 2022. The aforementioned peak was nearly simultaneous with the announcement by the Fed in March 2022 of a change in Fed interest rate policy.
ALL HAIL THE FED!
As investors continue to gobble up stocks and the dollar prices of most assets continue to climb, it would appear that all is well. Concerns about weakening economic activity and recession have been moved to the back burner. Now, the focus is squarely on inflation.
In Fed Chair Powell’s speech this past Wednesday, he spoke about Fed monetary policy and also talked about the role of the Federal Reserve. In addition, he referred directly to the matter of the Fed’s independence and the necessity of maintaining that independence. In effect, he warned Congress about efforts to involve the Fed politically or to attempt modification of the independent monetary policy role of the Fed.
Below are selected excerpts from the speech which are followed in turn by my comments…
INVESTORS ARE TOO ANXIOUS FOR RATE CUTS
Anxious investors seem to be expecting more than has been “promised” regarding interest rate cuts. Some (quite a few) seem overconfident that the long awaited pivot is a done deal. In addition, anticipated results from the expected cuts are already built into the markets to a large degree. Here are some thoughts worthy of consideration…
1) Suppose the Fed cuts rates later this year, but not as much as expected. Is cutting interest rates 1/4 or 1/2 percent all that is necessary to kick the gravy train into high gear?
2) Is a Fed pivot a temporary thing? Maybe the Fed cuts a quarter point once or twice, then re-pivots and begins raising rates anew.
3) What if the Fed doesn’t cut rates at all?
ANTICIPATION IS MAKING ME WAIT
(Thank you, Carly Simon, for the perfect subheading.) The possibility of three rate cuts in 2024 has been amplified to mean that the Fed will cut rates this year – 2024. The rate cuts most everyone is expecting are the same rate cuts that were assumed and expected for most of last year – 2023. Isn’t it possible that rate cuts could be postponed again? How long can elevated stock prices and other assets maintain their lofty levels based on the expectation of lower interest rates which continue to be expected but not realized?
IF THE FED PIVOTS, MIGHT IT BE TEMPORARY?
Overlooked in the rush by everyone outside of the Federal Reserve to talk interest rates down are comments by Fed Chair Powell which include the phrase “higher for longer”. Those who are so intent on expecting lower interest rates might do well to consider not just the possibility, but the likelihood of rates remaining higher for longer.
Rates were intentionally forced lower by the Federal Reserve over nearly four decades prior to the official announcement their campaign to raise interest rates in March 2022. During those four decades the Fed moved back and forth both higher and lower regarding interest rates, but all changes in direction were temporary within a long-term decline in rates lasting nearly forty years.
The emphasis on “lower for longer” took interest rates close to zero and created an addiction for cheap money and credit. The artificially low interest rates that fueled the addiction were not normal. They were abnormally low historically and created huge bubbles in asset prices. Financial and economic volatility increased and the U.S. dollar suffered a loss of credibility and purchasing power.
As a result, the Fed was forced to change its interest rate policy to protect and defend the dollar. Not out of a patriotic sense of duty, but in order to save the financial system. It may be too late for that.
That brings us to our final point. What if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?
WHAT IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT RATES?
It is very much a possibility that the Fed might not cut rates at all. The inclination to do so seems to change from week-to-week and month-to-month along with changing economic data and statistics. Jerome Powell has been consistent in his comments that “higher for longer” is the game plan. Maybe rates get kept at current levels for awhile longer.
At their current level, interest rates are still abnormally low on a historic basis. Historically normal interest rates average 7-8 percent. We are not there yet. And with the extreme lows for interest rates experienced for several decades, there is a significant amount of inefficient allocation of money and resources that needs to be reallocated. That will result in varying degrees of financial and economic pain.
CONCLUSION
The Federal Reserve has a history of market intervention and manipulation. The Fed’s interest rate policy is a manipulation ‘tool’. The market intervention and manipulation is ongoing. The overriding purpose is to create and sustain an environment that enables banks to continue to lend money and collect interest in perpetuity.
Often, though, application of the ‘tool’ is a defensive reaction to unintended and unexpected financial and economic events. For many years now, the Fed has been occupied with battling the negative consequences of it previous policies and actions. They may be in the driver’s seat, but the vehicle is out of control.
Stormy seas are ahead. If the Fed cuts too soon or too much, the cheap bubble juice will create more inefficiencies and extreme volatility. Right now, just the expectation of a return to cheap and easy money/credit has blown bubbles in almost everything priced in dollars. At some point, bubbles get popped. That is something the Fed is trying to avoid.
Interest rate cuts are not a sure thing. Investors could be in for a nasty surprise. (also see Federal Reserve and Market Risk)
Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!
A VISIT TO JEKYLL ISLAND
Earlier this year, I had the opportunity to visit Jekyll Island and see some of the landmark buildings where secret meetings took place which led to the origin of the Federal Reserve in 1913…
With all the attention that the Federal Reserve gets today, it might be a good idea to learn a bit more about that origin which is steeped in controversy regarding claims of conspiracy.
FED HAS NO FEAR OF INFLATION
The Fed wants to have their cake and eat it too, but the cake is stale. Jerome Powell’s remarks in testimony before the Senate recently provoked considerable attention.
Responses, interpretation, and analysis by observers were many and varied. Unfortunately, no one learned anything different from what they thought they knew before Powell’s testimony.
The Fed is well aware of the problem. It is systemic in nature and goes far beyond corporate due diligence, bank liquidity, and the safety of your broker.
Most everyone else (with the exception of Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan) thinks they understand the problem, but their limited understanding doesn’t allow for the subtleties of Fed Chair behavior.
POWELL AND YELLEN…
Flashback 11/21/2017:
“President Trump nominated Jerome H. Powell as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t look for much to change. And Janet Yellen’s announcement that she will resign from the board upon Mr. Powell’s induction as board chair is pretty much a non-event.” (see New Fed Chairman, Same Old Story)
Currently, comments by Jerome Powell last week regarding inflation and its effects spooked some investors and analysts. Investors in leveraged Treasuries were dealt a severe blow when yields spiked and bond prices fell. Others have claimed that the sky is falling and that inflation is all around us.
The Fed always does its job. So, just what is their job? And, how well do they perform?
For the answer to the first question, one statement will suffice: The Fed’s job is to create money; at all times and in all seasons.
The Federal Reserve Bank creates money for the US government to spend and for banks to loan. It is a partnership that dates back more than one hundred years.
EVERYTHING IS GOING LOWER
Nothing epitomizes cheap money more than the lofty level of bond prices and their corresponding low yields. The old adage of “never chase yield” seems to have been pushed aside in favor of “buy more when the interest rate approaches zero”.
Yield-hungry investors think they are being conservative, though. Some of that reasoning is due to the obvious volatility of the stock market; especially during the first twenty years of this century.
BONDS BIGGER RISK THAN STOCKS
Even before the latest stock market dump, bonds could be considered a bigger risk than stocks. The risk is greater now than it was in 2007-08; and probably more so than at any other time in history.