Fed Interest Rate Policy – 2008, 1929, And Now

DID THE FED CAUSE THE 2008 RECESSION?

A review of the history regarding Fed interest rate policy yields information that says “yes”.

On June 30, 2004, the FOMC began to tighten policy by increasing the Fed Funds target rate to 1¼%.  By June 2006, two years later, the target rate was at 6 1/4%. It remained at that level for the next year – well into 2007.

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Will Cryptocurrencies Become Fiat Currencies?

IS BITCOIN STILL THE NEXT BIG THING?

Remember when Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were the “next big thing”? For most investors, it was only because the prices were going up in radical fashion.

The anticipation of hitting it big coupled with FOMO (fear of missing out) overcame fundamental analysis and common sense. Aside from the techno geniuses who created them, and maybe a few savvy ‘miners’, who else could explain the process?

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Silver Is A Screaming Bargain

SILVER IS A BARGAIN 

Silver fever is rising.  Calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver Has Come And Gone) and higher echo loudly. With its price close to $25 oz. after being as low as $18 oz. last fall, now would be a good time to review how well silver has responded to past predictions of impending higher prices.

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The Fed’s Changing Game Plan

FED’S GAME PLAN IS ALWAYS CHANGING

“Inflation is likely to take longer to return to our price stability goal than previously expected” Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell March 16, 2022

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Demand For Money Could Cause Deflation

 BANKING CRISIS = LIQUIDITY CRISIS = DEMAND FOR MONEY

Events this past week are indicative of what could be a more formidable problem for the Fed, investors, and the economy. Before we talk about that, lets first emphasize the key point made in my article SVB, MMT, TNT.

What happened at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and now, Credit Suisse and First Republic banks, are not individual issues. All of them are the obvious signs of banking system fragility due to the practice of fractional-reserve banking. Therefore…

What has been termed a banking crisis is actually a liquidity crisis; and the loss of liquidity translates to a DEMAND for money.

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SVB, MMT, TNT

SVB (Silicon Valley Bank)

The Silicon Valley Bank fiasco is an in-your-face example of the systemic risk inherent in fractional-reserve banking. (see Elephant In The Room)

You cannot reliably expect to avoid indefinitely the results of reckless behavior. That should be apparent to all of us after 2008 – 2011. Sooner or later, the full onboard cost will be paid.

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End To Inflation – Three Possibilities

END OF INFLATION IS INEVITABLE

At first, the statement above may seem counterintuitive; especially in light of the ongoing increase in the cost of goods and services experienced recently that seem to have no limit.

Besides, inflation never stops. All governments, with the help of central banks, intentionally inflate and destroy their own currencies. There are changes in momentum, of course, but an ever-expanding supply of money and credit leads to continual loss in purchasing power of the  currency (i.e., U.S. dollar).

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Still Betting On Gold Stocks?

Whatever enthusiasm investors have remaining for their gold stocks holdings must be waning rapidly, if not already dissipated. Below is a year-to-date chart (source) for GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) showing the latest swoon in prices…

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Gold In The Aftermath of 2020

GOLD SINCE 2020 

When gold was trading above $2000 oz. in the summer of 2020 the yellow metal was receiving its fair share of attention.  After a low point just under $1050 oz. in December 2015, the gold price had doubled in four and one-half years and bullish optimism was at fever pitch.

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Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver

SILVER SEDIMENT

 “Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”

The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.

What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day,  found the bottom level and stayed there.

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