"Everything you need to know about gold"
INVESTMENTS TO AVOID IN 2025
While most other analysts usually tell you where to invest, I prefer to tell you where NOT to do so; at least at this particular time. The backdrop of a deteriorating world economy, recurring financial catastrophes and the volatility which accompanies them, plus exacerbation of existing problems by governments and regulatory agencies, make it difficult to recommend investments on a fundamental basis.
Recent articles trumpeting silver’s outperformance relative to gold and some ridiculous price projections are a bit too much. Missing from most of the extremely positive commentary is a dose of reality. Below are three charts (source) which should provide some needed perspective. The charts show average monthly closing prices (inflation-adjusted) for the periods August 2020 – July 2024; April 2011 – July 2024; and January 1980 – July 2024. Here is the first chart…
SILVER COIN PREMIUM COLLAPSE
As starry-eyed investors bask in the glory of a silver price which penetrated $30 oz. on Friday, it seems like a good time to review what has happened to the premiums attached to silver coins. I have written several articles about silver coin premiums over the past four years. I will refer to them periodically throughout this article. Most of my analysis and comments pertain to U.S. Silver Eagles and U.S. junk silver coins.
Over the years (and decades) silver travels a path fraught with excitement and disappointment. Both the excitement and the disappointment stem from three things that are killing silver – unrealistic expectations, inflation, and time.
UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
The unusual conditions leading to the explosion in the silver price in the late 1970s are unlikely to happen again in a similar context…
In real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, prices for both gold and silver peaked in 1980. We’ll look at charts for the two metals and discuss their applicability to current price expectations. Silver first…
SILVER
The first chart (source) for silver is a history for the past century based on average monthly closing prices…
SILVER NOT UNDERPRICED
Silver bulls have for decades made the argument that the white metal is underpriced relative to gold. Their enthusiasm is fueled by expectations for a return to the original fixed ratio of 16:1 in favor of gold.
Using the current gold price of $1925 oz., a return to the ratio of 16:1 would require a silver price of $120 oz. – right now.
SILVER COIN PREMIUMS ARE SMALLER
One year ago I published the article Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse?. In it, I expressed concern about the high premiums being paid by stackers and others for the privilege of owning silver in coin form, particularly Silver Eagles…
GOLD LEAVES SILVER BEHIND
Complicated and convoluted technical analysis, inflamed fundamentals, never-ending last chance warnings and all the supposed evidence to the contrary – there is nothing that justifies the ultra-bullishness of silver stackers and investors. We might say “gold leaves silver behind, waiting, and in the dust.
SILVER IS A BARGAIN
Silver fever is rising. Calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver Has Come And Gone) and higher echo loudly. With its price close to $25 oz. after being as low as $18 oz. last fall, now would be a good time to review how well silver has responded to past predictions of impending higher prices.