"Everything you need to know about gold"
The correct definition of inflation is “the debasement of money by government and central banks“.
The effects of inflation show up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.
Hyperinflation is defined as “out-of-control general price increases in an economy, …typically measuring more than 50% per month.” (source)
There are two specific reasons why hyperinflation re: out of control general price increases for all goods and services, possible US dollar collapse, etc., is unlikely.
As investors, analysts and commentators warm to the idea that “inflation is likely transitory”, much of what we have been hearing from the the Fed and the United States Treasury seems to encourage and support that interpretation.
Team Fed member (aka Secretary of Treasury) Janet Yellen, who has used the word ‘transitory’ on other occasions, followed up her own attempts (here and here) to introduce the word into mainstream financial vocabulary with additional comments in a press conference after the G-7 meeting in London…
OVERHEATED ECONOMIES AND MARKET PREDICTIONS
Janet Yellen said the following last week…
“It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat”
Later that same day, she said this…
“It’s not something I’m predicting or recommending. If anybody appreciates the independence of the Fed, I think that person is me, and I note that the Fed can be counted on to do whatever is necessary to achieve their dual mandate objectives.”
Also last week, we heard from the Federal Reserve which released the following statements on Thursday, May 6, 2021…
Before we can understand how to interpret these statements and any possible conflictions, there are four key topics which need to be explained: inflation, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the economy.
Let’s start by defining hyperinflation…
“Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.” (source)
In addition, hyperinflation is described as “an extreme case of monetary devaluation that is so rapid and out of control that the normal concepts of value and prices are meaningless.”
The latter description is much more characteristic of the potential threat that most people envision when they invoke the term hyperinflation.
Under the conditions characterized by price increases “so rapid and out of control that the normal concepts of value and prices are meaningless”, what would happen to the price of gold?
FED HAS NO FEAR OF INFLATION
The Fed wants to have their cake and eat it too, but the cake is stale. Jerome Powell’s remarks in testimony before the Senate recently provoked considerable attention.
Responses, interpretation, and analysis by observers were many and varied. Unfortunately, no one learned anything different from what they thought they knew before Powell’s testimony.
The Fed is well aware of the problem. It is systemic in nature and goes far beyond corporate due diligence, bank liquidity, and the safety of your broker.
Most everyone else (with the exception of Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan) thinks they understand the problem, but their limited understanding doesn’t allow for the subtleties of Fed Chair behavior.
CONSUMER PRICES NOT REFLECTING HIGHER INFLATION
As of November 30th, the annual inflation rate for the year 2020 is 1.17% (CPI). And it is not likely to get a whole lot worse anytime soon.
When the Federal Reserve responded to the financial crisis of 2007-08 with hugely unprecedented monetary expansion efforts, many thought that it would lead to runaway inflation and collapse of the U.S. dollar. It didn’t; and the expected higher inflation rates did not occur.
A current headline says “fears of currency debasement drive gold price higher”. Seems reasonable; and it is. It is also reasonable, however, that a potential end of inflation is near.
Historically, governments have been “debasing” their currencies for centuries. The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.
Since gold is original money and has proven itself to be a true store of value, then it should not be unexpected that gold’s higher price over time reflects that currency debasement.
The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.
All currencies are substitutes for ‘real money’, i.e., gold; and all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies.
GOLD PRICES AND INFLATION
The latest actions by the Federal Reserve have led many to assume that much higher inflation is a foregone conclusion. This leads to a further expectation that much higher gold prices are imminent.
That sounds logical, but it is not that simple.
There is a relationship between higher gold prices and inflation, but the two are not directly related. The confusion results from a misunderstanding about inflation and its effects.
A Lesson About Gold
Apparently, there is no limit. This seems especially true right now with all of the “obvious” signs and indicators staring you in the face. It is almost blasphemous to speak cautiously. Better to let your imagination run wild and join in the revelry.
I can’t do that. I don’t choose to be dumped into the same cauldron of boiling fantasy with other analysts and advisors, who tout and promote based on the latest headlines. There has to be more to it. I think there is.
“Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan and Canada are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending. In other words, such governments do not need taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency.” Investopedia
Of course governments are not ‘constrained’ by revenues. They have always been able to “print as much as they need”.
Modern Monetary Theory is not ‘modern’. Far from it.