Kelsey Williams

Overheated Economies And Market Predictions

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OVERHEATED ECONOMIES AND MARKET PREDICTIONS

Janet Yellen said the following last week…

“It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat” 

Later that same day, she said this…

“It’s not something I’m predicting or recommending. If anybody appreciates the independence of the Fed, I think that person is me, and I note that the Fed can be counted on to do whatever is necessary to achieve their dual mandate objectives.”  

Also last week, we heard from the Federal Reserve which released the following statements  on Thursday, May 6, 2021…

  • Rising asset prices are posing increasing threats to the financial system, the Federal Reserve warned in a report Thursday.
  • “Asset prices may be vulnerable to significant declines should risk appetite fall,” the central bank said.

Before we can understand how to interpret these statements and any possible conflictions, there are four key topics which need to be explained: inflation, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the economy. 

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Gold Price During Hyperinflation

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Let’s start by defining hyperinflation… 

“Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.”  (source)

In addition, hyperinflation is described as “an extreme case of monetary devaluation that is so rapid and out of control that the normal concepts of value and prices are meaningless.”

The latter description is much more characteristic of the potential threat that most people envision when they invoke the term hyperinflation.

Under the conditions characterized by price increases “so rapid and out of control that the normal concepts of value and prices are meaningless”, what would happen to the price of gold?

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Higher Gold Price Not Correlated To Money Supply Growth

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To say that “a higher gold price is not correlated to money supply growth” is fundamentally correct. However, the expectation for a much higher gold price resulting from huge money creation by the Federal Reserve is shared universally by investors, analysts, and others.

In fact, it is considered almost scriptural canon that a huge increase in the money supply will lead inevitably to a huge increase in the gold price. Historical examples of France in the late 18th century, Germany (Weimar Republic) in the 1920s, and Zimbabwe or Venezuela more recently, are often cited as proof of the relationship between money supply growth and its effect on gold prices.

That is not the case, though.

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Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited

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GOOD NEWS… The rebound in gold prices from their recent low has awakened new fervor among those looking for the elusive moonshot. The ‘obvious’ signs of much higher inflation have emboldened those who are inclined to predict ever higher gold prices.

Contrastingly, the chart of GLD prices pictured below doesn’t look all that great…

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No Fear Of Inflation; Threat Of Deflation

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FED HAS NO FEAR OF INFLATION

The Fed wants to have their cake and eat it too, but the cake is stale. Jerome Powell’s remarks in testimony before the Senate recently provoked considerable attention.

Responses, interpretation, and analysis by observers were many and varied. Unfortunately, no one learned anything different from what they thought they knew before Powell’s testimony.

The Fed is well aware of the problem. It is systemic in nature and goes far beyond corporate due diligence, bank liquidity, and the safety of your broker.

Most everyone else (with the exception of Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan) thinks they understand the problem, but their limited understanding doesn’t allow for the subtleties of Fed Chair behavior.

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Gold’s Singular Role

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When it comes to analyzing gold and gold prices there seems to be no limit to the explanations of cause and effect. The number of things presumed to be fundamental, or which are correlated to gold, has grown exponentially as gold receives more attention in the media and from the public.

The state of confusion that exists regarding gold and gold prices is exacerbated by the contradictions and conflicting arguments of almost all concerned parties. This includes  investors, traders, analysts, and brokers.

Rather than a desire to understand gold and its singular role, most investors and others are interested in gold only when its  price is going up. They buy it and then look for reasons to justify their expectations of even higher prices.

They do look for explanations as to why the price goes down, of course; especially when that happens after they have taken a position on the long side. By then, it is usually too late.

GOLD’S SINGULAR ROLE

There is one overriding fundamental with respect to gold: “GOLD IS REAL MONEY”.

Money has three specific characteristics: 1) medium of exchange; 2) measure of value; 3) store of value. In order for something to be money, it must have all three of these attributes. Otherwise, it is not money.

The US dollar is not money because it does not embody all three of the necessary characteristics. It is an accepted medium of exchange and a measure of value, but it is not a store of value.

Gold is also original money. It was money before the US dollar and all paper currencies, which are merely substitutes for real money; in other words, substitutes for gold.

Lots of things have been used as money during five thousand years of recorded history.  Only gold has stood the test of time.

WHAT GOLD IS NOT

The simplest, and most accurate way to say what gold is not, is to state emphatically: “GOLD IS NOTHING ELSE OTHER THAN MONEY’.

Gold is not an investment; nor is it a hedge. Gold is not insurance. Gold is not a safe haven. Gold is not silver’s handsome twin brother. Gold is not a barbarous relic. Gold is not an outdated earlier version of the cryptocurrency craze. Gold as money is not an idea whose time has come and gone. 

Gold is nothing other than money. Its use in jewelry is always secondary to its role as money. Gold is money that can be used for adornment, but it is still money, nonetheless. Always.

THE VALUE OF GOLD

The value of gold is in its role and use as money. It is divisible into fractional units for transaction purposes and is a proven store of value.

Gold’s value is constant and unchanging. One ounce of gold today will  purchase amounts of goods and services roughly equivalent to what it could have bought fifty, one hundred, or one thousand years ago.

The reason the value of gold does not change is because gold, itself, is unchangeable.

WHY DOES THE PRICE OF GOLD CHANGE? 

It is logical and reasonable to ask “If gold is unchangeable, and its value is constant, then why does its price change?

The changing price of gold is attributable to one thing only: changes in the value of the US dollar.

Over the past century, the US dollar has lost between ninety-eight and ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. Correspondingly, the price of gold has increased by a multiple of fifty ($1050 per ounce) to one hundred ($2060 per ounce) times its original fixed and convertible price of $20.67 per ounce.

The chart (source) below shows a one hundred-year history of rising gold prices…

Over that same one hundred years, what you can  buy with an ounce of gold remains stable, or better.  (see my article A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold)

SUMMARY

Gold’s singular role is its use as money. Gold is real money because it carries the qualifying characteristics of money, including that of a store of value.

The value of gold is directly attributable to its use as money. Gold’s value is constant and unchanging. The higher price of gold over time is a reflection of the ongoing loss in purchasing power of the US dollar.

Gold’s value is not determined by world events, political turmoil, or industrial demand. Gold is not correlated to interest rates or anything else. Gold is not a hedge or a safe haven; nor is it an investment.

Gold is real money and nothing else.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT  and  ALL HAIL THE FED!

Gold And US Dollar Hegemony

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GOLD AND US DOLLAR HEGEMONY

The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That isn’t likely to change anytime soon.

All currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e. gold.  And because all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies, any potential alternatives to the US dollar are as bad or worse.

That doesn’t stop the dollar bashing, of course. In a general long-term sense, the condemnation is well-deserved. After all, the US dollar, under the care and watch keeping of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, has lost more than ninety-eight percent of its purchasing power.

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Investors, Speculators, Gamblers, Instigators

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Investors, speculators, gamblers, and instigators – four types of  ‘investors’. Which one are you?

Nowadays, it seems that anyone who owns anything fancies themselves to be an investor.

However, does buying a fractional unit of bitcoin in an online trading account qualify someone as an investor?

Are fanciful dreams of striking it rich by running with the social media herd the foundation of fundamental investing? Maybe there is more to it than that. Let’s take a look.

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Gold Prices Then (3/2020) And Now (3/2021)

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GOLD PRICES THEN

A year ago this past week marked the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic. It also was the last full week of trading in the financial markets preceding crashes in all markets and a near-complete, albeit temporary, shutdown of economic activity.

Subsequent rebounds in stocks, bonds and real estate took valuations to levels as high  or higher (much higher for stocks and gold) than before the turbulence took hold. Some might refer to those valuations as nose-bleed levels, although the summit for peak ascension is always moving when the effects of inflation are factored in.

Gold had its day in the sun, too.

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Powell And Yellen – Team Fed

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POWELL AND YELLEN…

Flashback 11/21/2017:

“President Trump nominated Jerome H. Powell as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t look for much to change. And Janet Yellen’s announcement that she will resign from the board upon Mr. Powell’s induction as board chair is pretty much a non-event.” (see New Fed Chairman, Same Old Story)

Currently, comments by Jerome Powell last week regarding inflation and its effects spooked some investors and analysts.  Investors in leveraged Treasuries were dealt a severe blow when yields spiked and bond prices fell. Others have claimed that the sky is falling and that inflation is all around us.

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